The Space Force’s reports have highlighted that ULA is poised to perform significantly better than SpaceX in terms of its capability to launch national security satellites. Although SpaceX has been a dominant force in the commercial launch market, the analysis by the Space Force projects a change in the landscape for military-related missions in the future.
The evaluation took into consideration several factors including the reliability, cost, and performance of rockets belonging to both space companies. ULA, a joint venture of aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin, has consistently delivered reliable services for military missions. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has been the go-to option for commercial launches due to its impressive track record and lower costs.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, although potentially capable of competing with ULA’s heavy-lift rockets like the Atlas V and Vulcan, has only conducted three missions since its first successful launch in 2018. On the other hand, ULA has showcased its commitment to upgrading its launch vehicles, with the introduction of the Vulcan centrifugal lunar launch vehicle expected to make a difference in securing lucrative contracts for national security-related space projects.
ULA has made efforts to address the Space Force’s concerns regarding future heavy-lift rocket reliability, by promising improvements and technological advancements with the development of the Vulcan Centaur rocket. The Vulcan Centaur has the potential to bolster ULA’s position in the long-term as it competes against SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launching spacecraft with critical defense and intelligence payloads.
In its budget plan for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Trump administration proposed retiring the Russel-era satellite procurement practices and emphasizing performance-based acquisitions to reflect the evolving space demands and competition between major launch providers like ULA and SpaceX.
In conclusion, the latest forecasts from the Space Force indicate that the United Launch Alliance will surpass SpaceX in 2025 when it comes to national security missions. Although SpaceX has made significant strides in the commercial launch market, ULA remains the preferable choice for more robust and reliable services for secure space missions.
