The ongoing crisis in Syria has thrown into sharp relief the limits of Russia’s global ambitions. Despite its military intervention in 2015, Russia has been unable to prevent the regime’s decline, and its inability to shape outcomes in the Middle East and beyond is now being called into question.
Russia’s decision to intervene in Syria was seen as a bold move, demonstrating its willingness to project power and influence in a region where the United States had long been the dominant player. The intervention was also seen as a way for Russia to reassert its influence in the Middle East, which had waned in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
However, despite its military successes, Russia has been unable to translate its military gains into lasting political influence. The Syrian regime, once seen as a key ally, is now on the brink of collapse, and Russia’s inability to prevent this outcome has raised questions about its ability to shape outcomes in the region.
One of the key challenges facing Russia is its lack of soft power in the region. Unlike the United States, which has a long history of engagement in the Middle East, Russia’s influence is largely limited to its military presence. This has made it difficult for Russia to build relationships with local actors and to shape political outcomes in the way that it would like.
Another challenge facing Russia is its reliance on authoritarian regimes to project its influence. In Syria, Russia’s support for the Assad regime has been seen as a key factor in the country’s descent into chaos, and its support for other authoritarian regimes in the region has raised concerns about its commitment to human rights and democracy.
Russia’s inability to shape outcomes in Syria has also had broader implications for its global influence. The country’s failure to prevent the regime’s collapse has raised questions about its ability to project power and influence beyond its immediate borders, and has led to concerns about its reliability as a partner for other countries.
Despite these challenges, Russia is unlikely to abandon its ambitions in the Middle East. The region is seen as a key area of strategic interest, and Russia is likely to continue to seek ways to project its influence and shape outcomes. However, its failure in Syria has highlighted the need for a more nuanced approach, one that takes into account the complexities of the region and the need for soft power as well as hard power.
In the short term, Russia’s focus is likely to shift to other areas of the Middle East, such as Libya and Yemen, where it has been seeking to expand its influence. However, in the longer term, Russia will need to rethink its approach to the region, and to find ways to build more sustainable relationships with local actors. Failure to do so will only serve to further undermine its global influence.
